‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.